Why China Dominates Merge-2

Merge-2 is perhaps the only mobile, casual category with new entrants making hits.

If you are a top-5000 publisher: chances of success?*

About 5%

Better than most categories!

But if you had a prior Merge-2 hit?

10%

and just as importantly...

A prior hit is a template to accelerate shots on goal.

The genre is clearly NOT dead for new entrants

2025 has Haunted Merge, Foodstars hitting $10M ARR

2026 has Hollywood Merge.

But, it's hard to overlook the glaring question

Why does China completely dominate merge-2 from 2022 onward?

Is there something structurally favoring Chinese publishers here?

I came up with two answers.

1. 2x Shots on goal vs. West

CN made almost half (146 / 328) launches since '20.

~ 2x the West's 83!

Hit rates are statistically equal for pubs without hits

CN 7%, West 9%.

So the success rates are ~comparable,

China is just taking 2x the shots on goal.

Note: Pubs we categorized as East/Other (Korea, Vietnam, Cyprus, etc.) are underperforming West and CN. 99 launches, 1% hitrate.

2. CN pubs are better at generating repeat hits

Western pubs w/ prior merge-2 success have struggled to repeat it.

Western repeat hit rate: 4% (1 of 26 attempts)

The key players

• Moon Active (IL): 1/4 - Travel Town, Merge Hotel
• Metacore (FI): 0/13 (so far, but admire the volume!)
• Lion (US): 0/3
• Vizor (BY): 0/3
• Paxie (TR): 0/2
• VoyagerOne (IE): 0/1

(Data from AppMagic)

China's repeat hit rate: 17% (4 of 23 attempts)

• Microfun (CN): 2/6 - Gossip Harbor, Seaside, Flambé
• BlueUltra (CN): 1/1 - Merge Prison, Haunted Merge
• Happibits (CN): 1/1 - Merge Cooking, Foodstars
• SHI YI NETWORK (CN): 0/6
• Rosecrab (HK): 0/3
• DragonPlus (CN): 0/2
• HK Hortor (CN): 0/1
• Cedar Games (CN): 0/1
• Century Games (CN): 0/1
• Casual Joy (HK): 0/1

Of course we're dealing with small numerators (hits).

4 successes vs. 1 doesn't quite pass statistical muster (p = 0.17)

But, tempting to think CN has something figured out.

To summarize...

1. China dominates by shipping 2x as many merge-2 games since 2020 as Western pubs.
2. And, they have better luck reproducing their success.

Re: #2, WHY do you think this is?

Let me know in the comments.

IAP Data from AppMagic AdRev from Turbine models.