The Pixel Flow Clones, Ranked

We all expected Pixel Flow clones. Thankfully, volume has been lower than I feared!

Of the top 5000 pubs, at least 15 have shipped a 'similar game.'

As of April, Pixel Flow has ~60% category (sort + conveyors) share of IAP + AdRev.

Here are the five best-performing fast follows / derivatives so far...

#1 — Yarn Loop

• 1Y Forecast — $40M.
• Will continue acquiring at ~ 1/3 scale of Pixel Flow, unless they can out-optimize Scopely.
• April category market share — 13%.
• $10M IAP + AdRev to date.
• Released — 3.2 mo. after PF
• UA Differentiation — Subtle. Pig shooters swapped with 'yarn spools' but theme swap drives no mechanical changes to gameplay that are visible in ads. So, UA creatives inevitably look quite similar to Pixel Flow. Perhaps a sizeable demographic resonates more with 'yarn' than 'pig shooters' but I suspect Yarn Loop will struggle to scale profitable UA while in Pixel Flow's shadow.
• Retention — Superb - 17% D30 (on-par with PF)

#2 — Sand Loop

• 1Y Forecast — $35M.
• Voodoo reduced UA to 1/3 peak volume in March, so game may be slowing down.
• April categ. market share — 10%.
• $15M IAP+AdRev to date.
• Released — 2.2 mo. after PF
• UA Differentiation — Great. Sand Loop is the only Pixel Flow clone to differentiate meaningfully AND in a direction consistent with relatable, real-world physics.
• Retention — Okay - 9% D30

#3 — Marble Sort

• 1Y Forecast — $35M. Voodoo kicked UA into high gear in W1 April (higher than Pixel Flow!).
• $4M IAP + AdRev to date.
• April categ. market share — 12%.
• Released — 2.3 mo. after PF, but didn't start scaling until Mar.
• UA Differentiation — Good. Like Hotpot Flow, Marble Sort is a more traditional 'sortable objects ride a conveyor belt past containers' game, and so doesn't lean on pixel art to drive creative interest. Rather, it relies on faux 'marbles + gravity physics' to stand out as tangible and familiar. But, differentiation is rather thin in my view, and relatability suffers.
• Retention — Great - 12% D30

#4 — Color Cube Breaker

• 1Y Forecast — Deceased, at $13M.
• Game was just sunset in April.
• April categ. market share — 1%.
• $13M IAP + Ad Revenue to date.
• Released — 2.2 mo. after PF
• UA Differentiation — None. Literal clone of PF, no differentiation to sell via ad creatives. But was able to launch and scale FAST, even exceeding PF's DL for one weekend in Dec.

#5 — Hotpot Fever

• 1Y Forecast — $7M. Despite theme, retention quite poor. iKame have slowed UA since game's Feb peak.
• $2.2M IAP + AdRev to date.
• April categ. market share — 2%.
• Released — 3.1 mo. after PF
• UA Differentiation — Good. Thematic execution very strong (steaming, bubbling, cozy hotpot aesthetic). Relatability takes a hit; conveyor belt sorting isn't a very relatable form of hot pot cooking.
• Retention — Weak - 5% D30

Data from AppMagic

Ad Rev estimated