Are There Only Two Viable Genres Left?

Are there only 2 viable genres left?? The data might suggest so... BUT I think we can export the recipe to other genres!

First, let's look at the data.

Of only 22 successful* launches in Q3 2025

• 11 were XXL-scoped RPGs or 4X hybrids
• 7.4% success rate
• Organic-first strategy

-> known Anime IPs = built-in audience -> organic strategy 1st, Paid UA secondary

• Top Success = Kaiju No. 8 (Japan, Akatsuki)

-> 80% organic installs, acc: Sensortower

• 7 were hybrid-casual puzzlers
• 1.4% success rate (1 win per 70 prototypes)
• mostly from Vietnam, Turkey and Asia
• mostly from teams launching 25-50 prototypes / year
• Paid UA-first strategy:
• -> focus ruthlessly on "product-auction fit"
• Top Success = Pixel Flow (Turkey, Loom)

-> 85% PAID installs, acc: Sensortower

• 4 remaining => "Others" category
• 0.6% success rate in this category
• Successful* releases:
• Destiny Rising (AAA looter-shooter, known IP)
• Prison Master (Vietnamese Sim)
• Imposter Up (Portugal, party/betrayal)
• Friday Night Funkin' (US, rhythm)

So why are the 2 genres so dominant?

• XXL-Scoped RPG
• Hybrid-casual Puzzle

While these 2 genres are fertile ground for success...

We CAN intuit the success recipe to apply elsewhere.

The market rewards extremes, in one of 2 strategies

A. Known IP -> organic-led UA. -> Greater community size -> de-risks organic UA + proven high-ARPU, high-retention design patterns. + high-quality, AAA polish.

or

B. Build aggressively for 'product-auction fit' -> rapidly test/kill game prototypes at scale + aim for broad-market appeal -> Paid UA scale

These approaches don't necessitate RPG, 4X or hybrid puzzle, but those genres do satisfy them very well.

So, are you taking the Organic / IP path,

...or the product-auction fit path?

May the odds be ever in your favor.

*We defined success as $500k+ per month since launch date, after 90 days of maturation.

This includes estimated ad revenue.

Data from AppMagic.

Re: 22 successful launches in Q3 2025.

• Q3 = newest launch cohort to reach 90d maturation
• 1429 WW launches, 22 successes*
• Looked at top 5000 publishers only
• 1.5% success rate