Where Are Mobile Publishers Winning?

Where are mobile publishers winning?

A: Just six countries!

Japan, China, South Korea, Turkey, Vietnam... and the US!

In Q3 2025, 1429 mobile games were released WW.

Given 90 days to mature, the results

Q3 launch cohort

• 21 successful launches from 1429 = 1.5% success rate
• For comp: Q2 had 22 successes of 1587 = 1.4% SR
• Most countries had zero successful releases
• Japan was #1 by success rate (8%), 3 wins (of 36)
• China was #2 (4.4% SR). 8 wins (of 181)
• South Korea #3 (3% SR) 2 successes, 66 attempts
• Turkey #4 (2.3% SR), 1 success: Pixel Flow!
• USA #5 with 2 successes; Solitaire Association Journey (though looks developed in Poland / Belarus )
• RPGs FTW (MMO, Idle, Team): 11 of 21 wins (52%)
• Hybrid-casual puzzle: 7 of 21 (33%)

Takeaways

• Overall, success rates (SR) remain very low (1.5%)
• Q3 strikingly similar to Q2 (geos, specialties, SRs)
• Path A: AAA Eastern IP RPG/4X stack, with 5% SR
• Path B. Spray & pray hybrid casual puzzle, 1.5% SR
• One change: Tier1 Pubs moving toward Path B

Path A Examples

• Japan continues to succeed worldwide with anime IP
• China #1 by success volume, with ambitiously-scoped MMOs, Idle RPGs, and 4X.

Path B Examples

• Vietnam, Turkey winning w/ flood of HybC puzzle games, a few wins.
• Tier-1 West publishers transitioning to Path B w/ some success (US, AUS)

Top Game Releases

#1 - Kaiju No. 8 (team battler from JP) #2 - Destiny Rising (looter shooter from China) #3 - Solitaire Associations Journey (word puzz, US) #4 - Pixel Flow! (hyb-casual puzzle, Turkey )

Methodology

• Games evaluated by weekly revenue since launch
• Success = $500k / mo. since launch date
• Ad Revenue estimated & included
• Games without WW distribution excluded
• Data from AppMagic