Mobile Game Publishing Is (Still) Broken

Mobile game publishing is (still) broken

So, WHERE ELSE can a new game go to earn earn $10M+ in 2025?

Since IDFA Deprecation, Apple & Google have become less feasible as primary platforms for many devs/pubs..

Even for top publishers, Success Rates are low

• 1.44% of Apple/Google game releases make $10M (IAP) by 12M from launch (AppMagic adv. search)

• 1.39% Steam releases make $10M similarly (Gamalytic)

So, amid much talk of alternative platforms, inc. WeChat, UEFN, Roblox, I was curious what scale of NET revenues were possible on various platforms in 2025.

Some questions I hoped to answer

• What platforms might be attractive to an indie developer looking to make $1M / year?

• Or, for a midsized mobile publisher looking for $10M+?

The answer is likely quite different!

And few discussions here address that distinction.

So, here are my best estimates, per platform.

May the odds be ever in your favor

Key Takeaways

Top-10 game rev on Apple/Google is 5x Steam (this is why folks keep trying)

Chinese entity -> access to TapTap, WeChat, Huawei (3 of the best opportunities)

Methodology: Hours of deep research, rousing debate between Grok4 + ChatGPT4.5 and Claude4.1

Goal of the post is to help fellow devs & pubs enumerate and make sense of their options.  If you have better data, don't hesitate to share!