Just launched last week: Warhammer 40k: Warpforge, a nicely polished CCG, similar to Runeterra, MTG, Hearthstone. I played a few games and was quite impressed, but I do have my doubts about whether this game can reach, say $5M (wild guess at recoup given Spain-based dev team) on mobile.

There IS a Steam sku, which should help.

As an IP, Warhammer 40k is pretty unique. SciFi IP are notoriously problematic on mobile and in the West, and Warhammer is about as core as they come.

In Tier-1 West, only 8 Sci-Fi themed mobile games have grossed above $50M in their lifetime, ever, and 4 of those are powered by Star Wars or Star Trek IP. The others are 4x titles (Ark of War, War of Nations), Goddess of Victory Nikke, and the inexplicably successful "Galaxy Attack: Shooter Game."

When it comes to Warhammer 40k IP, there have been no fewer than 18 games launched since in the last 7 years, with multiple, high-quality attempts at Turn-Based Tactics, MMOs, 4X, CCGs, 1st and 3rd person shooters, and Auto-chess.

Of those 18, only three have managed to break $10M lifetime gross (and scale paid UA to 5m impressions): Tacticus (Turn Based Tactical RPG), and the two 4X titles: Lost Crusade and Chaos & Conquest.

Deeper analysis is warranted, but this has left me thinking

  1. Sci Fi on mobile, without the benefit of Star Wars or Star Trek IP, is undoubtedly a joy for developers, but a real longshot for investors.
  2. In any Core genre, don't bring a knife to a gun fight. You really need that 4X or deep Gacha RPG spend depth to reach $20+ RPD. The best CCGs top out around $5-$10.

Data from AppMagic.